The Quarterback position is the most difficult and demanding in all of sports. A truly good QB is a rare commodity and most only survive at the top for a short time. Often, it is all the rage to take each week’s performance and rank QBs with a staggering immediacy. That’s fine I guess, but I think it misses the full picture. Instead, I’ve put together a formula, which for now will remain proprietary, to sort QBs into tiers. The formula takes the previous two years and the current year-to-date. As a result, a QB remains in the ranking for 2 full years after retiring. I will present the 2020 QB Tiers and then the top 32 QB pairings (which excludes retirees and players on this week’s injury report). Here are the Week 13 Prinz QB Power Rankings:
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has blown by his 28 TDs from last year, though he’d have to go on a tear the last few games to get to 40 for the year. His 113/33 TD vs Turnovers ration over the past 3 seasons is simply absurd.
Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints (injured – ribs)
Russ has slipped a little and Rodgers has soared past him into the “2nd best” slot. After two consecutive 27/8 seasons, ARod has a reasonable shot at 45 TDs which would match his MVP 2011 season.
Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Uneven, yet elite, Brady is at 15 turnovers with 3 to play, matching his 3-year high. He’s also at 30 TDs, meaning he only needs one more to pass his 3-year high in that category too. Is more volume really a good thing for Tom at this stage in his career?
DeShaun Watson – Houston Texans
Watson has the 4th most TDs since 2018 and should easily log his 3rd straight 30 TD season. The Clemson grad is the only reason to watch the Texans.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans
Ryan hasn’t looked himself and seems to be treading water. He’s on pace to finish with the least number of TDs and turnovers he’s had since at least ’18. Cousins has enjoyed a short streak of inspired play and has a shot at his 2nd 30 TD season in the past 3 years. Tannehill has quietly been one of the best QBs in football for about 20 games and counting.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys (injured – knee)
Lamar has crashed down to earth and now fallen 3 tiers in the past several weeks. His outburst of 43 TDs last year is looking more and more like the outlier.
Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Philip Rivers – Indianapolis Colts
Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
There’s a significant gap between the top and bottom of this tier. Kyler Murray shows flashes of brilliance but has a ways to go before he’s fully trusted as a legit franchise star. Allen at times looks like the most talented QB in Bills history but then at times doesn’t have it. Big Ben’s recovering from his lost ’19 seems complete and he’ll easy get 30 TDs in ’20 and over 70 over the past 3 seasons.
Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Miami Dolphins
Fitzmagic returned as Tua’s early success hit an injury snag. Mayfield had a huge game this last week keeping him from falling two tiers since last time. Carr is another inconsistent case but his lows are much lower than earlier discussed subjects.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles (backup)
Andrew Luck – Retired
Mitch Trubisky – Chicago Bears
Cam Newton – New England Patriots
Andy Dalton – Dallas Cowboys
Wentz has hit the bench, his 64 turnovers the past 3 seasons tied for 2nd-most in the league. Cam, when healthy, is probably a tier or two higher but hasn’t been able to stay on the field and produce. Dalton seems to be getting more comfortable in Big D, if Dak still isn’t right next year, I could see him staying on.
Gardner Minshew – Jacksonville Jaguars (injury – thumb)
Teddy Bridgewater – Carolina Panthers
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Jacoby Brissett – Indianapolis Colts (backup)
Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers (injury – ankle)
Herbert has nearly matched Teddy’s 3-year output this season alone. Injuries to Gardner and Jimmy have stalled their progress.
Jameis Winston – New Orleans Saints (backup)
Eli Manning – Retired
It looked like it might be Jameis time in New Orleans, but they decided to go the Taysom Hill direction. Jury is still out on that decision.
Sam Darnold – New York Jets (33rd)
Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints (35th)
Nick Mullens – San Francisco 49ers (43rd)
Alex Smith – Washington Football Team (46th)
Brandon Allen – Cincinnati Bengals (48th)
Drew Lock – Denver Broncos (49th)
Mike Glennon – Jacksonville Jaguars (56th)
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles (71st)
Colt McCoy – New York Giants (84th)
This tier wraps up the remaining “starters.” It’s a wasteland out there folks. The fact that Brandon Allen, Mike Glennon, and Colt McCoy all took meaningful snaps the past couple weeks speaks to the devastation on the QB injury front.
Using the same metric, extracting retirees and players who appeared on this week’s injured list, here would be the “best possible” QB pairings after week 1:
|1||Patrick Mahomes||Mason Rudolph|
|2||Aaron Rodgers||Alex Smith|
|3||Russell Wilson||Matt Moore|
|4||Tom Brady||Brandon Allen|
|5||DeShaun Watson||Drew Lock|
|6||Matt Ryan||CJ Beathard|
|7||Kirk Cousins||Blaine Gabbert|
|8||Ryan Tannehill||Chase Daniel|
|9||Lamar Jackson||Matt Schaub|
|10||Ben Roethlisberger||Nate Sudfeld|
|11||Josh Allen||Mike Glennon|
|12||Philip Rivers||Trace McSorley|
|13||Matthew Stafford||Blake Bortles|
|14||Jared Goff||Chad Henne|
|15||Kyler Murray||Garrett Gilbert|
|16||Derek Carr||David Blough|
|17||Baker Mayfield||AJ McCarren|
|18||Ryan Fitzpatrick||Tyler Bray|
|19||Carson Wentz||David Fales|
|20||Mitch Trubisky||Josh Johnson|
|21||Cam Newton||Trevor Siemian|
|22||Andy Dalton||Logan Woodside|
|23||Teddy Bridgewater||Jalen Hurts|
|24||Justin Herbert||Tim Boyle|
|25||Jacoby Brissett||Kyle Lauletta|
|26||Jameis Winston||Josh Dobbs|
|27||Sam Darnold||Geno Smith|
|28||Case Keenum||Phillip Walker|
|29||Taysom Hill||Dwayne Haskins|
|30||Marcus Mariota||Brett Rypien|
|31||Joe Flacco||Brian Hoyer|
|32||Nick Mullens||Ben DiNucci|
What do you think? Impeccable right? Come back at the end of the season to see how they finish and check out the rest of The Buzz for all your NFL needs.